IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Red Dwarf · **Joined:** Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:01 am **Posts:** 9227

Always recommended reading - Terry Zink comments on IBM's predictions for 2016
http://www.circleid.com/posts/20120107_ ... s_no_spam/
IBM believes that spam will be filtered out, and relevant mail about our areas of interest will be filtered in.

IBM's 5 predictions are in the text of his article, and in a video link

AlphaCentauri · **Joined:** Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:01 am **Posts:** 5915

I haven't looked at the video he mentions, but the other predictions are pretty shaky. By 2016, four years from now? Get rid of the digital divide? Sounds like a "Have" that has no idea how much "Have-Nots" haven't got. Internet service is pretty far up on Maslow's hierarchy.

And having biometrics replace passwords? Sounds like someone who hasn't tried to solve the problem of ZeuS trojan. Any biometric has to be converted to digital form to be transmitted, and it has to be saved for anyone to use it for verification. Once your digital file is in someone else's hands, it becomes a password that can't be changed, since it's keyed to your biometrics.

NotBuyingIt · **Joined:** Sun Jun 13, 2010 5:22 pm **Posts:** 528

It would be lovely to think that spam will disappear by 2016 and that IBM will not.

(Seriously, IBM really looks like it's doing well.)

HansTheBlueFrog · **Joined:** Wed Feb 04, 2009 3:23 pm **Posts:** 342

NotBuyingIt wrote:

It would be lovely to think that spam will disappear by 2016 and that IBM will not.

(Seriously, IBM really looks like it's doing well.)

Maybe they should stop predicting.

Hans

Red Dwarf · **Joined:** Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:01 am **Posts:** 9227

Mind you, if the drop from August 2010 to August 2011 could be repeated each year, we could see how such a prediction is reasonable
http://www.senderbase.org/home/detail_spam_volume?displayed=last18months

Looking at the 18 months period starting from the year preceding that graph, you can see just how far we have come

Red Dwarf · **Joined:** Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:01 am **Posts:** 9227

Over the past 18 months the Ironport Senderbase statistics show a continuing downward trend compared with previous years (see above)

Red Dwarf · **Joined:** Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:01 am **Posts:** 9227

Reference: http://cbl.abuseat.org/images/totalflow-threeyears.png

Over the past 3 years there has been a significant decrease in spam, as shown at abuseat.org
It is currently at 1/8th of the peak it was at back then

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Red Dwarf · **Joined:** Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:01 am **Posts:** 9227

Ironport's Senderbase has changed the appearance of its chart. However here is the global spam volume report for the past 18 months

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Reference: http://www.senderbase.org/static/spam#tab=1

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IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

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